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当前位置翻译资讯 >> 最新更新资讯 >> 影响:中国经济转型将影响世界


Forget the Federal Reserve. Forget the European Central Bank. The institution whose decisions will matter most to the world economy over the next five years is China's State Council.
忘记美联储(Federal Reserve),忘记欧洲央行(European Central Bank)。未来五年,对世界经济影响最大的决定将来自中国国务院。

The 30 or so officials that the National People's Congress will this month name as new five-year members of that powerful cabinet body will oversee a sweeping economic transformation with global consequences. How smoothly they manage China's planned transition from an unsustainable growth model that's been based on exports and state-directed investment toward an open, consumer-driven economy will have vast implications for the rest of the world. Prices for everything from European government bonds to iron ore are on the line. How it transpires will even dictate whether and when the Fed and the ECB can normalize their extraordinary monetary easing policies.

So far, developments just before and during the NPC's two-week-long annual meeting suggest the council will continue a policy of incremental liberalization. Those changes are in the best interests of a more balanced global economy, but only so far as the economic pain that they deliver to key industries within and outside China is manageable. Tens of millions of jobs are on the line.

On March 1, curbs on property loans were announced and this week we learned that mainland-dwelling residents of Macau and Hong Kong can now invest in the stock market. In different ways--in the first case, by attacking a looming credit bubble and in the second, by bolstering capital markets as an alternative to banks and increasing cross-border fund flows--these measures chip away at the structure of a tightly managed financial system through which state-controlled banks have funneled Chinese households' excess savings into subsidized loans for massive investment projects.

Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China has let the yuan rise by 0.6% against the dollar since Feb. 21 to close it in on a record high. The gain might not seem much, but it coincided with the dollar's own 1.6% increase versus the basket of seven advanced-country currencies that comprise the Wall Street Journal Dollar index and an almost-4% surge versus the yen. This makes the yuan one of the strongest performing currencies in the world right now. Along with some hefty wage increases in recent years, the currency realignment is simultaneously dissolving Chinese exporters' cost advantages while boosting the purchasing power of its army of budding consumers--a desirable and necessary power shift.
同时,自从2月21日以来,中国央行还允许人民币兑美元升值0.6%,使人民币收盘价创下新高。这个升值幅度可能不大,但是与此同时,美元自身对华尔街日报美元指数(the Wall Street Journal Dollar index )中七个发达国家的一篮子货币升值了1.6%,并且对日圆大幅升值近4%。这让人民币成为目前全世界表现最强劲的货币之一。加上最近几年工资水平几次大幅上涨,货币的升值同时消除了中国出口商的成本优势,同时提振了新兴消费大军的购买力,这是一个可喜和必要的力量转移。

Nonetheless, recent data highlight the risks in the Chinese authorities' balancing act. Over the weekend, retail sales fell notably short of expectations, suggesting that domestic consumer spending is struggling to take the growth baton from overseas demand. The poor performance was in part caused by a crackdown on corruption, which is curtailing officials' expenditures on luxury goods. No good deed goes unpunished.

Making matters worse, inflation exceeded forecasts. That raised the prospect that the People's Bank of China will tighten monetary policy at an inopportune moment of economic slowdown. Sure enough, People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said earlier Wednesday that the central bank's low money supply target reflected its focus on price stability.
更糟的是,通胀超过了预期。人们认为,中国央行(People's Bank of China)可能会收紧货币政策,尽管在眼下经济放缓的时候,此举显得有些不合时宜。果然,中国央行行长周小川周三早些时候说,中国央行较低的货币供应量目标体现出对价格稳定的关注。

Even an otherwise welcome increase in exports last week is being challenged by economists who believe it was inflated by false orders. And electricity production, which is trusted as a more reliable, less-manipulated statistic, was down.

If you're wondering whether any of this matters, consider how outside markets reacted to these announcements from the world's second-largest economy. When the government unveiled tougher mortgage terms, the Australian dollar swooned as investors reasoned the measures would slow Chinese construction projects and sap demand for iron ore, one of Australia's main exports. And after the weekend's data provoked predictions that 2013 growth would fall short of the government's targeted 7.5% rate, markets across Asia fell.

And consider this: The more economic challenges China faces at home, the less likely it is to use its $3 trillion stockpile of currency reserves to prop up the struggling bond markets of Europe or to help fund Washington's borrowings. In fact, if Beijing supports a stronger yuan, it may encourage a net repatriation of reserves. This could drive up interest rates in the West, and provoke financial instability.

China's tricky transition demands a deft handling of these competing challenges. Let's hope those new State Council members keep a steady hand on the tiller.


[来源:来自网络] [作者:admin] [日期:13-03-18] [热度:]




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