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上海世博会高峰论坛论文Paper for Shanghai Expo Summit Forum

自主创新、扩大内需和转变经济发展方式
Independent Innovation, Domestic Demand Expansion and Economic Development Mode Transformation

厉以宁
Li Yining


I
在2008年国际金融危机对中国经济产生强烈冲击以前,不少人对中国经济增长的速度和出口贸易增长的势头都感到满意,只有较少的人察觉到这意味着中国经济发展方式存在问题并且越来越具有出口依赖性质。2008年第三季度以后,由于受到国际金融危机的冲击,中国经济增长率持续下滑,在政府加大投资和扩张信贷的刺激下,2009年下半年起,经济增长率终于止跌回升。这一过程使较多的人认识到,这种出口依赖型的经济增长方式不能再继续下去了,否则中国经济难以走上稳定持续增长的道路。这可以说是2009年这一年中国从经济波动中学到的最宝贵的经验之一。Before the international financial crisis of 2008 produced a strong impact on China’s economy, many people considered China’s economic growth rate and export growth momentum satisfactory, while only few people perceived that it indicated China’s economy was becoming export-oriented and there might be some problems with China’s economic development mode. After the 3rd quarter in 2008, China’s economic growth rate declined continuously, adversely affected by the international financial crisis. Since the second half of 2009, the economic growth rate has rallied, stimulated by increasing government investment and credit expansion. It has made many people realize that such export-oriented mode of economic development couldn’t be relied on any more, otherwise it would be difficult for China’s economy to realize stable and sustainable growth, which could be regarded as one of the most valuable lessons China learnt from the economic fluctuations in 2009.
为什么中国经济会成为出口依赖型的,从而某些大中城市企业成为出口依赖型的?要回答这个问题,首先要认识到,中国经济在这以前已经成为高速度增长依赖型的经济。中国经济增长必须有高速度,这是受就业压力越积越大的逼迫所致。Why does China’s economy become export-oriented, thus making some large and medium-sized urban enterprises export-oriented? To answer this question, first we should be aware that China’s economy most relied on rapid growth before. Forced by heavy employment pressure, China’s economy has to sustain rapid growth.换句话说,进入20世纪90年代以后,由于国有企业改革所引起的人员分流,以及由于农村多余劳动力一直不断地流向城市,再加上城镇每年新增劳动力需要就业,使得就业形势始终是严峻的,于是经济增长必须高速度。In other words, since the 1990s, the employment situation has been severe due to personnel outplacement arising from the reform of state-owned enterprises, rural surplus labor force that has been flowing to cities, and annually increased urban labor force that needs employment. Therefore, the economy has to sustain rapid growth. 2008年的经济波动表明,当该年11月起经济增长率下降到略高于6%时,失业人数就骤然上升了,似乎中国经济增长率只有达到9-10%,甚至超过10%时,就业问题才稍稍缓解。为了社会稳定,看来高速增长是唯一可供的选择。从另一个角度看,这意味着中国经济,包括若干中国大中城市,已被迫地走在高速增长的道路上,非高速不可。经济增长率下降到7%以下,就会出现社会不稳定等情况。The economic fluctuations in 2008 show that there was a dramatic rise in unemployment when the economic growth rate dropped to slightly over 6% in November 2008. It seems that only when the economic growth rate of China reaches 9-10% and even more, can the problem of employment be slightly eased. In order to keep social stability, rapid growth seems to be the only choice. From another perspective, that means China’s economy, including that of some large and medium-sized cities in China, has been forced to follow a path of rapid development, with no other choice. When the economic growth rate drops to 7% or below, other circumstances such as social instability may occur.

[来源:三特翻译] [作者:翻译 付菲菲] [日期:10-11-11] [热度:]

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